AIC Update
January 2005 | Volume # 2 | Number # 4
 a catalyst for change through dialogue and understanding

In This Issue

Talking Points:
  • A Dangerous Triangle: Iran, Israel, and the United States

    AIC Press Releases & Alerts:
  • American Iranian Council condemns NIAC’s Call to War
  • Internet Petition Urges Prevention of Attack on Iran
  • Lecture: Role of the United States in Iranian Transition to Democracy

    Perspectives & Commentary:
  • US-Iran Relations: Leveraged Diplomacy

    AIC in the News:
  • Dr. Hooshang Amirahmadi - Persian Radio/TV
  • Quotes from AIC Board Member Gary Sick, PhD

  • Honorary Board

    American Iranian Council Honorary Board of Directors (clockwise from top left): David A Hamburg, President Emeritus - Carnegie Corporation of NY, R.K. Ramazani Ph.D., Professor Emeritus - University of Virginia, Ambassador Sargent Shriver, Chairman - Special Olympics, Honorable Donna E Shalala, Former US Secretary of Health and Human Services - President, University of Miami


    The American Iranian Council (AIC) is a nonprofit and nonpartisan tax-exempt [501 (C) 3] educational organization dedicated to improved US-Iran relations through dialogue, better understanding, and constructive engagement.

    American Iranian Council
    20 Nassau Street, Suite 111 | Princeton, NJ 08542
    tel: 609.252.9099 | fax:609.252.9698
    www.american-iranian.org
    aic@american-iranian.org | update@american-iranian.org

    Talking Points:

    Each week the Council publishes Talking Points in AIC UPDATE to improve dialogue on issues integral to improving US-Iran relations.

    A Dangerous Triangle: Iran, Israel, and the United States


    In the days following President Bush’s inaugural address, Vice President Dick Cheney continues to reiterate the Bush administration’s position on Iran, by identifying it as a top threat to world peace and Middle East stability, accusing Tehran of sponsoring terrorism against Americans and building a "fairly robust new nuclear program.” However, the most disconcerting statement came only hours after the President’s speech, in which Vice President Cheney warned that Israel "might well decide to act first" militarily to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities if the United States and its allies fail to resolve the standoff with Tehran diplomatically.

  • The United States remains caught between Iranian nuclear proliferation and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The United States must both engage the peace process and re-examine its Iran policy if it plans on maintaining a peaceful balance in the region. Both conflicts are undeniably interrelated and have a significant impact on regional stability.

  • Iran’s position vis-à-vis Israel is extremely important in fostering an overall improvement in US-Iran relations. Iranian support for anti-Israel groups is driven both by symbolic and strategic calculations, but these calculations are amendable by changes in regional security.

  • Although Israel remains ambiguous on Iran’s nuclear program, it is unlikely to accept Iran’s word that its nuclear program is meant solely for peaceful purposes and aimed at developing commercial energy. The possibility of decisive military action is, indeed, high, but most believe an attack must be condoned by the United States prior to execution.

  • Iran is also unlikely to give up its nuclear ambitions as long as Israel remains a nuclear power (although Israel has never publicly admitted to having nuclear weapons). Iran is encouraged by the fact that it would provide a counterweight to Israel’s military arsenal and become only the second Islamic state to possess such a weapon.


    AIC Press Releases & Alerts:

    AMERICAN IRANIAN COUNCIL
    ALERT

    tel: 609-252-9099 | fax: 609-252-9698

    American Iranian Council condemns NIAC’s Call to War

    Princeton, NJ (January 27, 2005) The National Iranian American Council (NIAC) has recently published an alert titled "Should the US bomb Iran?" on its website. The alert, subtitled, "Tell the President what policy to conduct on Iran!" gives the reader four prepared letter to President Bush and allows the reader to automatically select and send a unique position on how the Bush Administration should conduct its policy vis-à-vis Iran. The final letter is titled “The US should Strike Iran Now!” and calls for US military action to immediately eliminate the Iranian threat and stimulate regime change.

    The American Iranian Council condemns this approach in the strongest possible terms and asks that NIAC immediately withdraw this option from its website. It is completely inappropriate for any organization, especially one dedicated to Iranian-Americans, to suggest the explicit and unsubstantiated use of US military action. Such warmongering serves no meaningful purpose and is detrimental to the interests of both the American and Iranian people.

    In the interest of both the United States and Iran, the Council recommends constructive engagement as the preferred method for democratic transition and the resolution of withstanding issues between the United States and Iran. As such, the Council urges everyone to contact NIAC to insist on the removal of such a dangerous option from their website.

    The American Iranian Council (AIC) is a nonprofit and nonpartisan tax-exempt [501 (C) 3] educational organization dedicated to improved US-Iran relations through dialogue, better understanding, and constructive engagement.

    ###





    American Iranian Council
    Alert

    tel: 609-252-9099 | fax: 609-252-9698


    Internet Petition Urges Prevention of Attack on Iran

    Princeton, NJ (January 23, 2005) During the week of January 17, 2005 an internet petition began circulating, urging the members and officers of the United Nations General Assembly to pass a resolution preventing an attack on Iran by the United States. Some 4,000 signatures have been collected on behalf of this petition which is hosted on www.petitiononline.com, a major contributor to this internet fad.

    The petition reads as follows:

    To: United Nations General Assembly

    We, the undersigned, urge you, the members and officers of the United Nations General Assembly, to pass a resolution against and to use all of your diplomatic and political powers to prevent an attack on the sovereign nation of Iran by the United States of America and/or her allies.

    Sincerely,

    The Undersigned


    The preceding petition can be found at: www.petitiononline.com

    The American Iranian Council supports the underlying goal of this petition and believes that both the Iranian-American community and the larger American community must become involved if Iran is to become a democratically developed member of the global community with full respect for human rights, through peaceful means. The Council believes citizen engagement is the primary tool for fostering constructive dialogue on the fate of US-Iran relations.

    However, many experts suggest that the utilization of the United Nations as an obstructionist body has only proved that the United States is willing to take unilateral actions. The utilization of the United Nations as a body for dialogue would prove measurably more successful in improving US-Iran relations. The American Iranian Council urges supporters of this petition to also support constructive engagement between the United States and Iran, rather than just obstructionist measures that promote the status quo relationship.

    The American Iranian Council (AIC) is a nonprofit and nonpartisan tax-exempt [501 (C) 3] educational organization dedicated to improved US-Iran relations through dialogue, better understanding, and constructive engagement.

    ###








    Perspectives & Commentary:

    US-Iran Relations: Leveraged Diplomacy


    Undoubtedly, one of the most difficult tests for the newly mandated Bush administration will be developing a comprehensive Iran policy. The wider state of US-Iran relations remains volatile in the post-September 11 environment, unsatisfactory to both governments, and serving the national interests of neither country. President Bush and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld have both publicly admitted that the United States does not possess the leverage necessary to thwart Iranian nuclear ambition. A more effective Iran policy should provide for measured engagement, thereby establishing an effective channel for leverage, since the government of Iran seems resigned to ignore vaguely articulated, piecemeal, symbolic, and ambiguous complaints in the absence of normal relations. Therefore, existing policy concessions must be repackaged to provide for a more transparent and functional approach. The Islamic Republic has indeed hinted at the establishment of a "normalized situation" before negotiations on mutual concerns can start. A dialogue on the issues must address more than nuclear proliferation, it must also address the totality of the problem.

    President Bush’s new foreign policy team must develop a comprehensive policy that exploits existing channels, allowing for the reciprocal impact of economic diplomacy. While the US firms continue to be barred from open investment in Iran, primarily the result of unilateral sanctions, European countries are imposing monopolistic deals on the country via the nuclear bargaining table. Moreover, US investment in Iranian agricultural and pharmaceutical industries remains meager, partially the result of OFAC licensing requirements. While the country is rich in oil and gas, geography, and human resources, it lacks the required capital and technology, shortcomings that the United States can mitigate. The presumption that “a weaker Iran is a better Iran” was the basis of the now defunct “dual containment” policy. A new US policy should promote greater economic development, to foster political leverage via the provision of economic carrots.

    Likewise, a comprehensive US policy should support democratic reforms in Iran, but refrain from taking side in Iran's factional politics. The Bush administration appears committed to the democratic transformation of the Gulf region, but should not engage further regional initiatives without respect for the sovereignty and integrity of Iran and its religion, culture, and institutions. Washington must make clear that any discourse suggesting it seeks to intervene in Iran’s internal affairs are without foundation. Likewise, the United States should not become engaged in the dangerous exploits of Iranian dissidents and exiles. The endogenous reform movement and the emerging proactive Iranian diplomacy are rock solid, despite recent setbacks, as they are based on structural changes in the Iranian society and developments globally. Prompting a dialogue on democratization does not require gambling on factional politics, a dangerous act, as proven by our military exploits in Iraq.

    A new policy of engagement must be developed to reverse mutual hostilities and combat nuclear proliferation. This policy does not necessitate American appropriation of nuclear negotiations, but it does require that the United States infuse the debate with articulated demands and support for its European allies. Accusatory politics, to this point, has done little to prove Iran has a nuclear weapon, the fissile material to build one, the operating facilities to produce or test one, or the delivery system to utilize one. Based upon final conclusions in the Iraq case, accusations regarding weapons of mass destruction must be substantiated not only by physical evidence but by imminent and threatening intentions. On the latter, the US case against Iranian nuclear development is feeble and based on a history of distrust. Therefore, the United States must articulate a global policy on the development and utilization of nuclear fuel supplies. However, engagement on this issue must be met with equitable engagement on the totality of issues, as they are equally important and propel our nuclear fears.

    Ultimately the key to normalization of relations remains building mutual trust between the governments and peoples of Iran and the United States, a condition explicitly revealed by high-ranking foreign policy officials on both sides. The Bush administration should state a willingness to promote a direct dialogue on human rights, terrorism, nuclear weapons, and regional stability. To this point, the United States has only engaged the region in a destructive manner, legitimizing the Iranian regime’s characterization of the United States as the “Great Satan.” Corresponding analysis suggests that if the United States continues to pursue a policy of regime change toward the Iran, it will unite the Iranian populace behind anti-Americanism, continue to cultivate indigenous insurgencies, and destabilize the region, threatening pro-American governments and interests across the greater Middle East.

    Building trust requires further participation in international organizations complimented by direct dialogue. Iran is now an active participant in a multitude of bilateral and multilateral, regional and global, organizations and conventions. The United States and Iran can and should cooperate on issues of mutual concern and interest within and outside of these institutions but certainly in coordination and harmony with friends and foes. With US military forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, regional cooperation has become a necessity. Likewise, the United States must develop a policy that utilizes rather than punishes our European, Russian, and Chinese interlocutors for engaging in Iran. Fundamentally, a new Iran policy must recognize the region and global interests of Tehran and the Iranian public. A policy of reciprocal engagement and mutual trust requires the open acknowledgement of the legitimate regional interests and roles of both the United States and Iran. The status quo does not serve the national interests of either country, and as such it must change. Under current conditions, we are allowing a history of mistrust and a policy of sticks to determine the future. President Bush’s new foreign policy team must develop an informed vision of the Middle East and a comprehensive policy of demands and related rewards.


    AIC In The News:

    Top academics, policymakers and professionals serve on the AIC Board. AIC UPDATE includes relevant opinions, articles, quotes, and commentaries of AIC's Board Members.

    Dr. Hooshang Amirahmadi has made numerous appearances on Persian language news outlets in the last week.

    Interview with Dr. Hooshang Amirahmadi on SBS Radio Australia

    Please be aware that the following television appearance is captured on streaming media that changes frequently. Therefore, the American Iranian Council cannot guarantee that the link will be accurate for any period of time. However, the following program will still be available at VOA - Roundtable with You

    Hooshang Amirahmadi on VOA-Persian Service: Weekly Roundtable with Mr. Ahmad Baharloo.




    The following excerpts, that include quotes by AIC Board Member Gary Sick, PhD, can be found in "Bush Plugs the Window-Dressing, Cheney the Nitty-Gritty" by Jim Lobe – Inter Press News Agency.

    For regional specialists, such as Gary Sick, an Iran expert at Columbia University, however, both the Hersh article and Cheney's grim mutterings are "deja vu all over again."

    "In Iraq, we listened to the exiles who said we'd be greeted with flowers and candies so it would be 'cakewalk', but it turned out not to be quite that way," said Sick, who served on the National Security Council under former President Jimmy Carter and later wrote a book, All Fall Down, about US policy in Iran.

    "I can't believe there are people who want to repeat that process now," he added.

    Sick and other regional specialists insist that the assumptions apparently being made by administration hawks about the nature of the government, its goals in Iraq, and how a US or Israeli military strike would affect internal Iranian politics are all deeply flawed.

  • About Update
    AIC Update is a public service of the American Iranian Council aimed at educating Americans, including Iranian-Americans, about US-Iran relations. AIC Update is an information resource for US-Iran relations and the efforts of the American Iranian Council to perpetuate meaningful dialogue between the United States and Iran.
    Vision
    The vision of the American Iranian Council is that the United States and Iran will work together, since their common interests far outweigh their differences. AIC also envisions the Iranian-American community playing an increasingly significant role in American society, and Iran becoming a democratically developed member of the global community with full respect for human rights.
    Mission
    The mission of AIC is to be a constructive force, in cooperation and partnership with other organizations, in bringing the United States and Iran together, involving the Iranian-American community in the dialogue, and bringing attention to social and political conditions in Iran.
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