American Iranian Council

	AIC Update February 2005 \| Volume # 2 \| Number # 6
a catalyst for change through dialogue and understanding

In This Issue Talking Points: Nuclear Negotiating AIC Press Releases & Alerts: Event: Tribal Life and Women's Rights in Iran Iran's HIV/AIDS Rate on the Rise Perspectives & Commentary: US Iran Relations: Is Confrontation Necessary? (Part 2) AIC in the News: Quotes from AIC Board Members - Judith Kipper (Council on Foreign Relations) and Shireen Hunter (Center for Strategic and International Studies)	“Tribal Life and Women’s Rights in Iran” - see information below for more details. The American Iranian Council (AIC) is a nonprofit and nonpartisan tax-exempt [501 (C) 3] educational organization dedicated to improved US-Iran relations through dialogue, better understanding, and constructive engagement. American Iranian Council 20 Nassau Street, Suite 111 \| Princeton, NJ 08542 tel: 609.252.9099 \| fax:609.252.9698 www.american-iranian.org aic@american-iranian.org \| update@american-iranian.org
Talking Points: Each week the Council publishes Talking Points in AIC UPDATE to improve dialogue on issues integral to improving US-Iran relations. The EU trio -- Britain, France and Germany -- struck an agreement with Iran in November to suspend all uranium enrichment-related activities in return for talks on trade, security and technological bonuses for Iran. The talks are deadlocked as Britain, France and Germany are now calling on Iran to totally dismantle its nuclear fuel program in order to guarantee it does not seek the atomic bomb. To fully understand the ill fate of these negotiations, one must examine the position of each of the players: Iran, the European Union, and the United States. Iran: Non-negotiable! The paradox of the European negotiations is that Iran is not prepared to negotiate on its nuclear program. Neither Iran’s ruling elite, nor its masses appear poised to completely abandon the development of an indigenous nuclear fuel cycle. International pressure, not national interest, has brought the Iranian government to the negotiating table. Nonetheless, Iran publicly insists it is legally developing low-grade uranium for nuclear fuel. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty allows a country to produce and possess for peaceful purposes the same materials that can be used in nuclear weapons. Reports vary, but the acquisition of missile and nuclear detonation components indicate the development of nuclear technology for non-peaceful purposes. Considering the proliferation of nuclear weapons in Iran’s neighborhood, including Russia, China, Pakistan, India, and the US in Iraq and Afghanistan, it would not be surprising if Iranian strategic planners did not come to the conclusion that their best defense is a nuclear deterrent. Are European carrots enough to persuade Iran to disregard both legal rights and national interests? Europe: Is the US on Our Side? The European’s role as interlocutor between the United States and Iran on the issue of nuclear weapons has been renewed by reports suggesting Iran has acquired missiles capable of reaching Europe. Feeling the pressure from Washington and uncertain of Iran’s long-term commitment to nonproliferation, the Europeans have demanded a complete cessation of uranium enrichment. However, the Europeans need more support from the United States if they are going to be successful in persuading Tehran to renounce its suspected attempts to develop a nuclear bomb. Trade incentives, such as helping Iran join the World Trade Organization (WTO), cannot not even be seriously introduced without US support. The Europeans have not indicated that the United States participate in negotiations, but they have insisted that the United States support a diplomatic tract and not usurp the process with military threats. United States: Not only Nukes! Washington has so far supported the three EU countries' diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from seeking an atomic bomb. The United States has repeatedly insisted that it has no plan for regime change in Iran; it also refuses to take the military option off of the table. Although the United States could easily ensure Iran's access to peaceful nuclear power in return for a verifiable agreement not to build nuclear weapons, it has not been explored in great detail. The primary reason is that the rift between Iran and the United States is based on a multitude of issues, not just Iran’s nuclear program. The United States has only begun to articulate its position vis-à-vis the European negotiations. However, considering statements by US officials, it is clear that human rights and support for terrorism are primary concerns. If negotiations are to reach a final resolution, the United States must articulate its demands in greater detail. The ultimate problem is that signatories may opt out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (after giving 90 days notice), allowing them to transform low-grade uranium enrichment into high-grade uranium production for use in nuclear weapons. The case of Iran highlights problems with the Non-Proliferation Treaty, not problems with the pursuit of national interests. The uniqueness of this case suggests that if Iran intends to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, it must resolve other areas of dispute with the United States. AIC Press Releases & Alerts: AIC Co-Sponsors “Tribal Life and Women’s Rights in Iran” WHO: Mehrangiz Kar Human Rights Lawyer, Writer, and Activist for Women's Rights WHAT: A keynote speech by the renowned Iranian human rights activist Mehrangiz Kar A presentation on tribal women and their education by Dr. Cima Sedigh Tribal Music by Chakavak Ensemble Traditional Persian Dinner will be served WHEN: Saturday February 26, 2005, 6:00-10pm WHERE: Rutgers University Livingston College Student Center 84 Joyce Kilmer Ave Piscataway, NJ 08854-8040 The American Iranian Council proudly co-sponsors this event, organized by the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Rutgers University. Please email mideast@rci.rutgers.edu to sign up and reserve your seat by February 17. In your email, please include your name, phone number, and an email address. ### Iran’s HIV/AIDS Rate is on the Rise Princeton NJ (February 10, 2005) According to health ministry statistics, HIV/AIDS cases have risen to 10,000 in Iran. Infections have sharply increased since 2003, and health experts fear that a much larger number of HIV-positive individuals are unwilling to come forward. In October 2002, the American Iranian Council held a Congressional Roundtable on the growing concern about drug use and HIV/AIDS in Iran. The proceedings from this event are forthcoming, but the post-event press release for that event follows: AIC Holds Roundtable on Drug Use and HIV/AIDS in Iran Princeton, NJ (October 16, 2002) The American Iranian Council yesterday held a Congressional Roundtable on the soaring rate of drug use and HIV/AIDS infections in Iran. Sponsored by U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE), the session was opened by former U.S. Senator and AIC Co-Chairman J. Bennett Johnston (D-LA), who said, "The timing is very good for the United States and Iran to open up cooperative endeavors on drug addiction and HIV/AIDS." President George W. Bush recently upgraded HIV/AIDS to the level of a major national security risk. AIC President Hooshang Amirahmadi noted that, while there are "over 60,000 drug-related prisoners in Iran today," the country has "opened up recently to a variety of other methods to address its drug problems." In the past, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been willing to make great financial and personnel sacrifices to stop supply trafficking and to punish drug use with harsh jail terms. Now it is saying that it will seriously consider other methods of prevention and treatment, including ways to reduce demand. One of the day's main speakers, Dr. Robert G. Newman, Director of the Baron Edmond de Rothschild Chemical Dependency Institute of Beth Israel Medical Center in New York, noted that in the Islamic Republic's war against drugs, over 3,000 Iranians have been killed over the past two decades trying to stop trafficking, and the government even established special "custody camps" and set aside an island to incarcerate drug users. Until the mid-1990s, it was illegal in Iran even to treat drug addiction. In contrast, Dr. Newman said, the Iranian government now shows "the commitment to providing interventions which are known to work." He emphasized the necessity of "setting aside our stereotypes" and recognizing the "radical transformation" that has taken place in the official Iranian approach to drug use. "This commitment to getting a massive new treatment level was evidenced," Dr. Newman said, when, less than ten days after Iranian researchers visited Yale, he received an invitation to set up a seminar in Tehran. In less than three months the seminar took place, with experts from Australia and Poland, as well as over 100 clinicians and researchers from all over Iran. The other main speaker of the roundtable, Professor Kaveh Khoshnood, of the Yale University School of Public Health, underscored the "paradigm shift" which has taken place in the Iranian government's response to the growing epidemics of drug addiction and HIV/AIDS. "Government officials openly admitted the failure of their one-sided policy of supply reduction," he said, creating "an opening for the Iranian medical and public health community." With a population of 70 million citizens, Iran is estimated to have between 1.2 to 2 million addicts. "Compare this to the United States," Dr. Khoshnood said, "which has 1 million addicts and a population four times as large." Iranian Ministry of Health officials estimate that as of April of 2002, over 3,000 people have been infected with HIV. The UNAIDS office in Geneva, however, estimates that some 20,000 adults and children now live with HIV/AIDS in Iran. "About 70% of the AIDS cases in Iran are attributed to injection drug use," Dr. Khoshnood said. In its fight against drug traffickers, Dr. Amirahmadi noted, "Iran was only scarcely helped by the international community, despite the fact that such drugs did indeed find their way into markets in Europe and America." Recognizing Iran's commitment to fighting drug trafficking, the UN designated Iran as the headquarters for its drug control programs in the region. As Iran changes its approach from controlling supply to reducing demand, it will need additional financial and human resources, as well as expertise to treat a growing number of users and addicts. This calls for international cooperation, including direct assistance from the United States. This Congressional Roundtable on the health and humanitarian aspects of drug use was partly sponsored by a grant from the Open Society Institute, and follows from AIC's previous work on narcotics traffic control efforts in Iran. In the year 2000, AIC convened two Congressional Roundtables, sponsored by U.S. Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA) and Congressman James Leach (R-Iowa). Those roundtables have been published and can be purchased from the AIC office. The American Iranian Council is the only U.S.-based organization that has championed the cause of the need for increased awareness of the threat posed by growing illicit drug use and HIV/AIDS in Iran. Perspectives & Commentary: The following essay was originally written by Hooshang Amirahmadi in 2002 following President George W. Bush’s State of the Union speech that characterized Iran as a member of the ‘axis of evil’. However, the ideas are as pertinent today as they were three years ago. The essay has been slightly adapted and updated to reflect current events. US-Iran Relations: Is Confrontation Necessary? (Part 2) Over the last two decades, Iranians have increasingly become US-friendly, and this was best demonstrated in the days following the September 11 tragedy: They held candlelight vigils, moments of silence, and anti-Taliban and Al-Qaeda demonstrations. More significantly, even the conservative media and authorities had to follow the people by condemning the terrorist acts and offering sympathy and tangible support. Iran is the only country in the region where the people are increasingly and rapidly moving away from radical Islam. A confrontation between the two governments can reverse this trend. Iran is a country in a painful transition. Most Iranians suffer from the excesses of the religious right and wish to see democracy, economic development and social justice prevail soon. The good news is that, while under the conservative onslaught, the nascent Iranian democratic movement survives and is joined by a growing number of aspirants. Time is certainly not on the side of the repressive forces. A US-Iran confrontation can change all this, since it will strengthen the hardliners. Some in Tehran consider President Bush’s tough language as a “gift of God,” a phrase the late Khomeini used to describe the war with Iraq. A military confrontation with Iran, even if it were to be limited or “surgical” in nature, will sure spill over into the surrounding areas, jeopardizing energy supplies and regional stability. The gains made in Afghanistan will be the immediate victim, and the Iraqi insurgency will definitely become infused with additional fervor. The world oil market is already in disequilibrium, with demand fast outpacing supplies, and many oil-producing states in the region are hardly stable, sustaining high per barrel rates. Islamic radicalism is prevalent, e.g., in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt. Free elections in any of these states would put radical Islamic parties in power. Military coups and despotic regimes may not be viable future options. A US-Iran conflict will also harm two other US interests in the region: Israeli security and the independent development of states in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Over the last two decades, the national security requirements of Israel have visibly deteriorated, despite US “containment” of Israel’s foes in the region. Meanwhile, the United States must account for Russia’s interest to regain effective influence in its “near abroad” and China’s interest to expand its involvement in geopolitics of energy in the Persian Gulf and Caspian regions. While counterproductive to regional and international security, the hard war option is a real possibility and, in the absence of an effective alternative to change the unsatisfactory state of US-Iran relations, the United States might find confrontation not just necessary but inevitable as well. The hawkish forces behind the hard war approach have become rhetorically more aggressive, despite the quagmire that is Iraq, and President Bush might be tempted to put his election mandate to serious military use to prevent Iran’s nuclear proliferation and to resolve the most difficult US foreign policy problem in years if not in decades. Iran must understand and face up to this possibility and to the fact that time is of the essence here. President Bush, Vice President Cheney, and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have put Iran on notice, suggesting that its actions are threatening world peace. It should be completely immaterial to Iran what logic or agenda lie behind the confrontational scheme and whether it is based on hard facts or soft fiction. The Iranian leadership can no longer postpone the painful strategic decision that it must make for a bold diplomatic encounter with the United States. Iran must offer the United States an honorable, resolute and purposeful soft peace that produces tangible common gains. While not an easy policy shift, particularly in the short time in which it must occur, the diplomatic offer should not be harder than the “poison cup” the late Khomeini had to drink when he accepted the UN/US-imposed cease-fire with Iraq. The Iranian hawks will object to the shift, the American hawks will see this as an indication that the threat of force works with Tehran, and the exiled opposition to the Islamic Republic will advise the Bush Administration that it must stay the confrontation course until the regime is overthrown. It is time that the two administrations listen to the voices of reason. An honest soft peace will produce gains for all sides, but for it to become a reality, both governments need to give it a real chance. Iran must see the scheme as the only best remaining option, and the United States must make it easy for Iran to embrace the required policy change. While building up a big pile of sticks against Iran, the Bush Administration must also offer Tehran a similarly big pile of carrots as an attraction. Tehran’s alternative to confrontation is now due! The price both sides have to pay is much less than the price they could otherwise pay for confrontation. AIC In The News: Top academics, policymakers and professionals serve on the AIC Board. AIC UPDATE includes relevant opinions, articles, quotes, and commentaries of AIC's Board Members. Judith Kipper, a Middle East specialist at the independent, New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, said: "The message for Iran was not constructive. This idea that the population will somehow rise up against the government is not going to happen and, in terms of getting the Iranians to cooperate on nuclear questions and to look at the whole basket of things the US wants, it's counter-productive." The complete article “Iran and Syria hit back at Bush: President's vow to target Tehran and Damascus in push for peace and democracy causes anger and fear in region” can be found at The Guardian. "The strategy of the United States is (to hope) that the Europeans can't deliver on some things Iran wants," said Shireen Hunter, an Iran analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "The administration is expecting that, by late spring or summer, the European track will fail." The complete article: “Tough U.S. stance on Iran brings echoes of Iraq debate: Emerging strategy against Tehran focuses on strengthening exile groups” can be found at San Francisco Chronicle.
About Update AIC Update is a public service of the American Iranian Council aimed at educating Americans, including Iranian-Americans, about US-Iran relations. AIC Update is an information resource for US-Iran relations and the efforts of the American Iranian Council to perpetuate meaningful dialogue between the United States and Iran.	Vision The vision of the American Iranian Council is that the United States and Iran will work together, since their common interests far outweigh their differences. AIC also envisions the Iranian-American community playing an increasingly significant role in American society, and Iran becoming a democratically developed member of the global community with full respect for human rights.	Mission The mission of AIC is to be a constructive force, in cooperation and partnership with other organizations, in bringing the United States and Iran together, involving the Iranian-American community in the dialogue, and bringing attention to social and political conditions in Iran.
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