Iran Digest Week of October 20- October 27
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US- Iran Relations
U.S. Strikes Iranian-Linked Targets in Syria
The United States carried out two airstrikes against facilities used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its proxies in eastern Syria early Friday in retaliation for a flurry of recent rocket and drone attacks against American forces in Iraq and Syria.
The strikes by Air Force F-16 jets, against a weapons storage facility and an ammunition storage facility, were intended to send a strong signal to Iran to rein in the attacks the Biden administration has blamed on Tehran’s proxies in Syria and Iraq without escalating the conflict in the Middle East, U.S. officials said. The targets, while limited in number, represent an escalation in striking facilities used by Iran’s own forces in the region, not just the militias in Iraq and Syria that Tehran helps to arm, train and equip.
“These precision self-defense strikes are a response to a series of ongoing and mostly unsuccessful attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups,” Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said in a statement.
Nuclear Accord
Will Iran Seek to Leverage Its Nuclear Program as Middle East Tensions Soar?
Recent efforts to de-escalate tensions between the West and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program have been set back by the recent Hamas terror attack on Israel, and Iran could seek to use the atomic program as leverage, according to analysts.
Western powers accuse Iran of supporting Hamas as a proxy militant group in the region, although they have not accused Tehran of direct involvement in the group’s October 7 cross-border terror attack on Israel, which killed more than 1,400 Israeli soldiers and civilians. Hamas is also holding more than 200 people hostage.
Israel’s subsequent bombing of Hamas targets in Gaza had killed almost 6,500 people as of Wednesday, according to Palestinian health officials, including more than 2,700 children.
(VOA)
Women of Iran
Women, life, freedom! Iranian electronic musicians reflect on a year of protest
In September 2022, Mahsa Zhina Amini died after being arrested by Iran’s “morality police”, for allegedly wearing her hijab improperly. Authorities claimed she had a heart attack and brain seizure, but witnesses to her arrest said she was a victim of police brutality. The uprising sparked by her death was the largest Iranian civil rights movement since the revolution in 1979, as thousands took the streets and were often met with violent subjugation from the country’s authorities.
More than a year has now passed, and the ubiquitous chants of “Zan, Zendegi, Azadi” (meaning “woman, life, freedom” in Persian) have seeped from the streets of Iran into the works of female Iranian electronic artists – literally so in the case of Azadi.MP3, whose track Empty Platform is filled with chants of those protests alongside heavily percussive beats.
Her track is included on a new compilation of music and sound by Iranian women, curated by Aida and fellow producer Nesa Azadikhah: a cacophonous sonic adventure titled Intended Consequence released in August via their label Apranik Records, and a sequel to January’s Woman Life Freedom. “We want to use our voice and platform to raise awareness about these issues in the otherwise silent electronic music industry,” Aida says.
Economy
Iran Sells More Oil But Revenue Falls Short
Despite a recent surge in oil exports, Iran is grappling with a large budget deficit partly due to inadequate oil income, raising questions about its real earnings.
Davoud Manzour, the head of Planning and Budget Organization (PBO), revealed on October 22 that the 7-month budget has only been realized by 70%, largely due to the unrealistic oil income estimates. While specific figures were not mentioned, Manzour cited discrepancies in both the projected oil prices and export volumes compared to the budget estimates.
As per this year’s government budget, Iran needs to export 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil and gas condensate at an average price of $85 per barrel to balance its budget, which heavily depends on oil revenues. The government’s budget this year totals 22,630 trillion rial (approximately $45 billion at the free-market USD rate, with the government's share of total oil export revenues standing at 6,200 trillion rials ($12.5 billion), representing 42.5%.
Health
Rangelands Degradation in Iran: A Looming Environmental Crisis
Rangelands in Iran are about 84.7 million hectares of grazing land, which accounts for 52% of the country’s total land surface. They are vast expanses of grass and shrub-lands, which play a crucial role in Iran’s ecosystem and economy. These regions support livestock farming, provide habitat for wildlife, and contribute to water resource management.
However, rangeland degradation has become a pressing issue in Iran, posing significant environmental and socio-economic challenges. Here, it must be said that desertification as a land degradation process is mostly created by anthropogenic and natural driving forces. In recent years, soil erosion, climate change, drought spells, overexploitation as well as over-grazing have led to the degradation of many rangelands.
In this article, we will explore the causes, consequences of rangelands degradation, and potential solutions to the problem of rangeland degradation in Iran.
(NCRI)
Inside Iran
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard recruits volunteers to fight in Gaza
Shortly after Hamas conducted its bloody “Al-Aqsa Flood” terrorist operation in Israel on October 7, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched an online recruitment campaign with the same name, hoping to convince young Iranian men and boys to join the Palestinian armed group in its war efforts.
The campaign, taken up by Iranian state TV and radio, and several websites affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, has already garnered more than 3 million ready-to-be-deployed volunteers, Iranian television reported.
The “Al-Aqsa Flood” campaign features a young boy in his pre-pubescent teens wearing military fatigues in front of Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa mosque. The child also has the symbolic pro-Palestine keffiyeh scarf wrapped around his neck, and wears a pin with General Qassem Soleimani’s portrait on his jacket. Soleimani, who long headed the Revolutionary Guard’s elite Al-Quds unit, was killed by American forces in Baghdad in 2020.
Iranian Prisons Ignore Declining Health of Jailed Activists
Iran's prison organization has neglected the healthcare of at least three imprisoned labor activists and has stopped them from receiving treatment, a union said.
The Free Workers' Union announced the arrest of a labor activist and a former Iran Khodro automaker company employee on October 24.
The union reported that Reza Aghdasi was arrested and sent to prison after being summoned to the third branch of the Evin Prison prosecutor's office in Tehran.
(Iran Wire)
Regional Politics
Iran is stepping up its shadow war with Israel to boost its clout — but it could backfire
Amid the war between Israel and Hamas, US officials warned this week that Iran-backed militias were planning to step up attacks on US bases in the Middle East.
There are "red lights flashing everywhere," a US official in the region told CNN.
Iranian proxies are trying to take advantage of the chaos unleashed by the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks, analysts told Insider, to further damage Israel and boost its clout in the region.
What is the 'axis of resistance' of Iran-backed groups in the Middle East?
Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a warning this week that the United States would act "swiftly and decisively" if it came under attack from Iran or its proxies in the Middle East, amid growing concerns of the Israel-Hamas war spreading.
His warning came as the White House accused Iran of facilitating attacks on U.S. military bases in Syria and Iraq in the last week. Questions about the extent of Iran's involvement in Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel have shone a spotlight on Iranian influence in the Middle East and raised major concerns about the prospect of a wider war engulfing the region.
The U.S. has said there is no direct evidence that Iran was involved in the Hamas attack against Israel. However, analysts and regional experts say there are evident links between Iran and the attacks carried out by Hamas.
(NPR)
Analysis
Despite their rhetoric, neither Iran nor Hezbollah want an escalation of war in the Middle East. Here’s why
By: Lina Khatib
Since 7 October, questions have been posed over whether Hezbollah would intervene in the fight against Israel in aid of Hamas, and on the extent of Iran’s involvement in Hamas’s attack on Israel. Iran backs both Hamas and Hezbollah: they are military partners and have coordinated training and battles with support from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Neither Hamas nor Hezbollah take decisions to declare war or peace without explicit prior agreement from Iran.
However, battles are not the same as full-on war. To date, Hamas and Hezbollah have never been involved in a war on two fronts against Israel. This is a scenario that neither the two groups nor Iran take lightly, because such a scenario amounts to regional war in the Middle East, which is in no one’s interest.
Hamas’s objectives in the 7 October attack on Israel were political: it wants to assert itself as the sole legitimate representative of Palestinian voices by engaging in an act which, in its eyes, would be seen by its supporters as heroic and would force the international community to engage with it as a de – facto military and political authority.
